Recent NFC playoff history shows few ‘barnburners’

It was the pass that eventually changed two seasons.    The Rams, trailing, 28-14, in the second quarter at the Superdome, were playing a first-and-10 at their own 25 yard-line.

Quarterback Jared Goff threw a pass intended for Robert Woods, but it was intercepted by Saints linebacker Alex Anzalone. The Saints took over at the Rams’ 34-yard line. The drive ended with a 1-yard TD run by Alvin Kamara.

The Saints, who scored two touchdowns in the space of 43 seconds late in the second quarter, led, 35-14. New Orleans won, 45-35.

The Saints and Rams would each win 13 games. But, that game and that pass would help determine homefield advantage in the playoffs.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees told reporters, after a 20-14 playoff win over the Eagles, said he knew a Rams-Saints rematch was quite possible.

“I had a feeling we would see these guys again,” said Brees. “So here we are, and here they are.”

The Saints are about a field goal favorite in the game. All week long, we have heard about how the rematch could come down to one play. Maybe so.

But, that is not what the recent history of the NFC Championship Game says. The last three NFC title games have been lopsided affairs.

In those last three games, the winners have scored 131 points, the losers 43. All three of those games were won by the home team.

Last season, the Eagles led the Vikings, 24-7, at halftime. The previous year, the Falcons led the Packers, 24-0, at that point. And, the year before, Carolina led Arizona, 24-7, at halftime.

So, there’s some history here. That is, get on top early and stay there.

That’s why early in the second quarter, facing a fourth-and-1 on the Saints’ 30-yard line, and trailing, 14-0, Saints head coach Sean Payton called for the fake punt. Taysom Hill ran for 4 yards and for a first down. That drive ended with a 2-yard touchdown pass from Brees to Keith Kirkwood, also on fourth down.

Momentum moved to the Saints’ column and stayed there.

So, this week in Philadelphia, maybe Eagles coach Doug Pederson is kicking himself for declining a holding penalty on Saints offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk on the previous play.

Instead of fourth-and-1 at their own 30, the Saints could have been playing third-and-11 at their own 20.

The Saints played poorly, for a quarter and then some but were good enough, at home, to overcome.

So, this week, something will likely happen early to shift momentum to one side or the other. The last NFC Championship Game to be decided by three or fewer points was the Giants’ defeat of the 49ers, 20-17, in Jan., 2012.

Don’t be surprised if this one goes big to one side or the other.

Ed Daniels is sports director of ABC26 WGNO. He can be reached at [email protected].