Hurricane forecast: Below-average numbers, but it only takes one

By Peter Finney Jr.
Clarion Herald

When WWL-TV meteorologist Alexandra Cranford was in seventh grade at St. Margaret Mary School in Slidell, she won first place in her age category for a “Keep Christ in Christmas” essay that was published in the Clarion Herald in 1999.

Perhaps foreshadowing her future career of gazing at the skies, Cranford wrote: “I stepped outside and stared up at the night sky. The stars looked like beautiful, little twinkling lights. As I turned slightly to see the other side of the magnificent sky, I was amazed. There was the biggest and brightest star I had ever seen. It sparkled like a diamond and took up a great portion of the sky. It was the star that told me our Savior was born.”

Now a parishioner of Immaculate Conception (Jesuit) Church on Baronne Street – “I love the ministry, the music and the pacing of everything, and I just think it’s a really gorgeous church, as well” – Cranford said her interest in meteorology was sparked by two loves.

“It’s a cool intersection for me between science and English,” she said. “I love reading, and I absolutely love novels and nonfiction, and I always have a few books going. Meteorology has both of those wrapped up in it.”

Below-average season?

As Cranford examines the data to unlock the potential for major storms during the 2023 hurricane season, here’s what she sees: “This summer is looking about average or maybe even a little below average. The forecasters are basing that on us probably entering an El Niño phase within the next month or so, and that usually tends to bring down the numbers across the whole Atlantic basin. But, just because the numbers are down in general by a few doesn’t mean that we won’t have some U.S. storms this season.”

High anxiety understandable

Cranford can sense anxiety rising among locals whenever June arrives, which she hopes to alleviate by providing solid information and maintaining a calm demeanor.

“I’ve noticed that a lot of people, sadly, get kind of nervous if there is something way out there or if there is something in the Gulf that we’re not thinking will develop,” Cranford said. “It’s our job to convey the message, and I hope we do a good job talking about the risk and the threat and not scaring everyone all the time, because there’s been a lot of anxiety since Katrina.”

Like most experts, Cranford urges people to have a game plan.

“I try to stay calm always,” she said. “It’s always good to have a plan for your own peace of mind.”

Hot spots, intensification

In recent history, Cranford said, storms have been seen to intensify when they hit the warm waters of the Caribbean. And, in the Gulf of Mexico, storms can get stronger quickly, which is hard to forecast.

“Rapid intensification is something we’ve been talking about a lot in the last few years – where a storm shoots up 35 miles an hour in 24 hours,” Cranford said. “Sometimes it is moving over a very warm patch of water. If it’s entering a spot where there is very little wind shear, sometimes you can see those big increases. You just have to watch. Models don’t do the best job detecting that much of an increase in wind speed in a very short time. You just have to watch and see what the hurricane hunter planes come back with and what the satellites say.”

Backup plan for reporting

In any eventuality, Cranford said WWL-TV will be ready.

“We have an entire backup studio in Baton Rouge just in case something happens in New Orleans,” she said.